UCSF

Introduction

Cluster surveillance, identification, and containment are primary outbreak management techniques; however, adapting these for low- and middle-income countries is an ongoing challenge. We aimed to evaluate the utility of prehospital call center ambulance dispatch (CCAD) data for surveillance by examining the correlation between influenza-like illness (ILI)-related dispatch calls and COVID-19 cases.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of state-level CCAD and COVID-19 data recorded between January 1 and April 30, 2020, in Telangana, India. The primary outcome was a time series correlation between ILI calls in CCAD and COVID-19 case counts. Secondarily, we looked for a year-to-year correlation of ILI calls in the same period over 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Results

On average, ILI calls comprised 12.9% (95% CI 11.7%-14.1%) of total daily calls in 2020, compared to 7.8% (95% CI 7.6%-8.0%) in 2018, and 7.7% (95% CI 7.5%-7.7%) in 2019. ILI call counts from 2018, 2019, and 2020 aligned closely until March 19, when 2020 ILI calls increased, representing 16% of all calls by March 23 and 27.5% by April 7. In contrast to the significant correlation observed between 2020 and previous years' January-February calls (2020 and 2019-Durbin-Watson test statistic [DW] = 0.749, p < 0.001; 2020 and 2018-DW = 1.232, p < 0.001), no correlation was observed for March-April calls (2020 and 2019-DW = 2.012, p = 0.476; 2020 and 2018-DW = 1.820, p = 0.208). In March-April 2020, the daily reported COVID-19 cases by time series significantly correlated with the ILI calls (DW = 0.977, p < 0.001). The ILI calls on a specific day significantly correlated with the COVID-19 cases reported 6 days prior and up to 14 days after (cross-correlation > 0.251, the 95% upper confidence limit).

Conclusions

The statistically significant time series correlation between ILI calls and COVID-19 cases suggests prehospital CCAD can be part of early warning systems aiding outbreak cluster surveillance, identification, and containment.