UC Berkeley

I examine the impacts of (unconditional) cash transfers on adult mortality, exploiting eligibility rules for a universal pension income program in Mexico for identification. Using differences-in-differences estimates with the universe of vital statistics data between 2002 and 2011, I estimate a 5% increase in mortality associated with participation in the universal pension program, driven by changes in deaths attributable to cardiovascular/circulatory disease. The positive income-mortality elasticity contrasts with recent work from low and middle income countries that show decreases in mortality in response to income transfers in later life, but is consistent with other evidence on cash transfers and risk factors for chronic disease. I hypothesize the findings may be explained by increase in food consumption, changes in diet, and retirement transitions. The results have important implications for the design of welfare programs, particularly those targeted towards aging populations, and add nuance to our understanding of socioeconomic determinants of health.